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It's closer than you think: new research shows 828 votes away from shared power

Media Release
Adam Bandt 22 Mar 2021

A Parliamentary Library Brief, provided to the Greens, reveals that a minority parliament is only 828 votes away, and looms as one of the most likely outcomes after the next election.

The brief showed that anything between a 0.57% and 3.88% swing to Labor would result in a balance of power scenario. The average swing in the last 20 years of Australian elections is 2.8%.

“Assuming all six 2019-elected crossbenchers (excluding Craig Kelly) and only these six get returned, a 0.57% uniform two party preferred swing to Labor will knock the Libs into minority.

“Labor needs a 3.88% uniform two party preferred swing to get to majority government, which looks far less likely.  Anything between 0.57 and 3.88 would likely mean a minority parliament. 

“The Greens have a strong record both Federally and in states and Territories of engaging cooperatively in shared power arrangements, resulting in Australia’s strongest action on climate.

“At this stage, no one sees Labor achieving swings in the 4% range. If they make some ground though, it’s likely that they’ll have to look to the crossbench to form government.

“Scott Morrison is supercharging inequality with corporate welfare and tax cuts for billionaires, the Greens would welcome the opportunity to tip the balance of power in the opposite direction,” Bandt said.

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